Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:00:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7394…58b7 other 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 626d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$160 (-3%) realized −$160 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$946now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$29
politics 22% −$6
sports 7% −$127
crypto 3% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 34 -24.4% -31.6% 21% 3% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 3% -13.5%
10% -38.2% 3% -21.8%
15% -44.2% 3% -29.3%
20% -49.6% 3% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

626d coverage
Net worth$946
Realized−$160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage626d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $626 $626 −$0 (-0%)
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $320 $320 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,035 −$2 -0%
Blue Jays vs. Rays Sep 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jul 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $6 $0 -1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 25 $4 $0 -1%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 07 $2 $0 -8%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 03 $4 $0 -1%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 02 $2 $0 -14%
Senators vs. Blues Jan 04 $104 −$104 -100%
Utah vs. Flames Jan 03 $102 +$100 +98%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 in December? Jan 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024? Jan 02 $24 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Jan 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 02 $44 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Dec 30 $106 −$106 -100%
Will there be 140,000,000-145,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. President Dec 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 03 $24 −$24 -100%
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)? Oct 01 $15 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $93 20m
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $320 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $720 1h
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $501 1h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $548 1h
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $502 4h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $549 4h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,034 4h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,035 15h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,034 16h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,035 22h
Blue Jays vs. Rays BUY Rays 51¢ $8 274d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Texans 57¢ $8 276d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $9 359d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? SELL No 99¢ $5 401d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 402d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? SELL No 98¢ $5 405d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 406d
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 406d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? SELL No 100¢ $5 407d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 408d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 98¢ $6 408d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 98¢ $6 409d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 94¢ $5 413d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 94¢ $5 414d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 77¢ $4 418d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 420d
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? SELL No 84¢ $4 426d
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? BUY No 84¢ $4 427d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 91¢ $5 427d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $945.93 · official $945.93 (match) · 71 history records