Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:47:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7390…30a3 other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$38 (+5%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$15
sports 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +22.1% +10.5% 60% 53% -11.5%
≤30d 15 +22.1% +10.5% 60% 53% -11.5%
≤90d 15 +22.1% +10.5% 60% 53% -11.5%
all 15 +22.1% +10.5% 60% 53% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.5% 53% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -0.1% 40% -20.0%
15% -9.7% 27% -27.7%
20% -18.6% 27% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$20 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 60¢ 60¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$15 +14%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $204 −$62 -30%
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 18 $25 −$4 -15%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $143 +$46 +32%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists Jun 17 $1 +$1 +62%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 +$1 +116%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $26 −$24 -91%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $128 +$22 +17%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $26 +$14 +54%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the England vs Croatia FI Jun 17 $1 $0 -21%
Game 4: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 $0 -10%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$3 +273%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $25 4m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $115 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 3h
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? SELL Yes 36¢ $22 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 29¢ $142 3h
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 5h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 5h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 6h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $188 7h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists SELL Yes 94¢ $2 7h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $2 7h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $1 8h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists BUY Yes 57¢ $1 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 8h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes $1 8h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 10h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $25 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $150 10h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 91¢ $41 10h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 10h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 55¢ $1 10h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 10h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $70 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.79 · official $24.79 (match) · 47 history records