Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:39:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x738e…1f9a sports 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$90 (-3%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%40W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days−$26
14 days−$64
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$90
other 15% +$63
world 1% −$11
crypto 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -7.6% -16.4% 45% 40% -11.1%
≤30d 88 -3.3% -12.5% 45% 42% -11.4%
≤90d 88 -3.3% -12.5% 45% 42% -11.4%
all 88 -3.3% -12.5% 45% 42% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 42% -11.4%
10% -20.8% 41% -19.9%
15% -28.5% 40% -27.6%
20% -35.5% 39% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$20 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses40 / 48
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 93
History coverage13d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $17 +$19 +112%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $12 $0 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jun 26 $4 +$7 +167%
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu Jun 26 $19 −$10 -49%
Piracicaba: Paulo Dos Santos vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Borges vs. Quinn: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 26 $32 +$5 +17%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn Jun 26 $28 −$16 -56%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $10 −$9 -98%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 25 $8 −$7 -83%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $24 −$16 -66%
Set Handicap: Gaston (-1.5) vs Echargui (+1.5) Jun 25 $15 +$9 +62%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Otto Virtanen Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 25 $16 −$8 -53%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Rei Sakamoto Jun 25 $11 +$7 +62%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Jun 25 $23 −$3 -13%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges Jun 25 $40 −$39 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 25 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$36 +73%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 25 $12 +$19 +165%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $35 +$26 +74%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $25 −$15 -59%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 24 $15 −$7 -46%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $29 −$14 -47%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 24 $32 −$20 -62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $11 +$19 +165%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $22 +$20 +90%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea Jun 24 $35 −$18 -50%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 24 $19 +$15 +76%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Federico Cina Jun 24 $19 +$18 +93%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 24 $31 +$28 +88%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $18 +$13 +70%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 24 $35 +$33 +93%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $24 +$11 +46%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $31 +$3 +10%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $17 −$16 -94%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $7 −$2 -21%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -16%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5) Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets AND Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee BUY 43¢ $20 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates AND Philadelphia Phillies vs. N BUY 28¢ $15 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $35 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 47¢ $5 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 46¢ $12 4h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL Senegal 59¢ $12 4h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 57¢ $12 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 98¢ $12 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 36¢ $4 7h
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu SELL Cezar Cretu 24¢ $4 7h
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu BUY Cezar Cretu 59¢ $10 7h
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu SELL Sumit Nagal 44¢ $6 7h
Piracicaba: Paulo Dos Santos vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida BUY Paulo Dos Santos 12¢ $5 7h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Fabian Marozsan 31¢ $10 8h
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu BUY Sumit Nagal 67¢ $9 8h
Borges vs. Quinn: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Under 100¢ $29 8h
Borges vs. Quinn: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 68¢ $20 9h
Borges vs. Quinn: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Over 43¢ $9 9h
Borges vs. Quinn: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 59¢ $12 9h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn SELL Nuno Borges 25¢ $12 9h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Nuno Borges 55¢ $28 10h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Caty McNally 45¢ $10 29h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) SELL Seattle Mariners $1 29h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Seattle Mariners 19¢ $8 29h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $24 29h
Set Handicap: Gaston (-1.5) vs Echargui (+1.5) SELL Gaston 100¢ $24 29h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 45¢ $8 30h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Kansas City Royals 21¢ $7 30h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 43¢ $16 30h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Otto Virtanen BUY Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 35¢ $4 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $34.34 · 213 history records