Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x738b…f6cd sports 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$239 (-8%) realized −$239 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%18W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$349
7 days−$249
14 days−$249
30 days−$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% +$593
crypto 33% −$482
other 30% −$297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +6.4% -3.8% 56% 52% -18.8%
≤30d 27 +6.4% -3.8% 56% 52% -18.8%
≤90d 27 +6.4% -3.8% 56% 52% -18.8%
all 30 +7.1% -3.1% 60% 53% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 53% -15.4%
10% -12.4% 47% -23.5%
15% -20.9% 47% -30.9%
20% -28.6% 43% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$106 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$239
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses18 / 12
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage128d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $76 +$81 +106%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$26 +52%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $51 +$81 +158%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 +$68 +135%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $76 +$60 +80%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $77 +$83 +109%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $76 +$77 +101%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +92%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $76 +$58 +76%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $76 +$97 +126%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $76 −$75 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$98 +96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Will "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Jun 11 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $145 −$145 -100%
Will "MONACO" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Jun 11 $65 −$65 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $102 +$88 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 14 $130 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 14 $200 +$41 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 14 $100 +$11 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $157 18m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $76 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 16¢ $26 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $77 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $51 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $131 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 38¢ $51 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $119 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 7h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $136 8h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $76 10h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 50¢ $160 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 30h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 23¢ $77 30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $76 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 35h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $91 35h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $6 35h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 36h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $76 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $25 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 76¢ $76 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 88¢ $173 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 38¢ $76 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $76 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $110 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records