Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x738a…b44c sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 751d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11,273 (-53%) realized −$11,273 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%6W / 27L
Whale WR11%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$646per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$357est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$892
7 days−$1,187
14 days−$3,437
30 days−$3,604
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$5,758
other 24% −$4,086
crypto 11% −$2,250
politics 1% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-47.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 20 -22.6% -30.0% 20% 20% -58.7%
all 33 -41.7% -47.2% 18% 18% -62.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.2% 18% -62.2%
10% -52.3% 18% -65.9%
15% -56.9% 18% -69.2%
20% -61.1% 15% -72.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 11% (≥$600) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -57% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,011 vs −$677 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

751d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11,273
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses6 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Est. fees paid−$357
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage751d
Avg bet$646
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $916 −$892 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $304 −$295 -97%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $2,395 −$2,250 -94%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $171 −$167 -98%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 14 $2,296 −$2,250 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $124 −$120 -97%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $307 −$300 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $615 −$600 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 11 $256 −$256 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $510 +$879 +172%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $614 −$600 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $512 −$500 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $410 +$2,090 +510%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 27 $1,500 −$1,464 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 26 $800 +$1,995 +249%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $352 +$761 +216%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $3,994 −$3,994 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $1,000 −$973 -97%
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Jupiter be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 08 $1,250 −$1,250 -100%
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-2? Jun 08 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-1? Jun 08 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-0? Jun 08 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? Aug 01 $557 −$557 -100%
Will Kaylee McKeowan (AUS) win Gold in 100m Women's Backstroke? Jul 31 $108 +$149 +138%
Will Bingjie Li (CHN) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? Jul 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Morocco win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? Jul 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Katie Ledecky wins 3 gold medals? Jul 28 $85 −$85 -100%
Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked? May 28 $500 +$194 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $616 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $300 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $304 3d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No $213 9d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No $213 9d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No $853 10d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No $426 10d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 12¢ $690 10d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 17¢ $171 26d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes $103 34d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes $103 35d
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY New York Yankees $31 35d
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 11¢ $124 35d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes $309 35d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes $206 35d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 22¢ $307 36d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $615 36d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes $206 37d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 36¢ $102 37d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 36¢ $408 39d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 24¢ $614 39d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes $309 39d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 18¢ $512 39d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes $103 40d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 15¢ $256 42d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 16¢ $410 44d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes $309 45d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Timberwolves 19¢ $700 50d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Timberwolves 20¢ $800 51d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 28¢ $800 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records