Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:02:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7384…efc1 other 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 237L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$14
14 days−$27
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$45
sports 26% −$24
politics 10% −$9
culture 9% −$9
economics 7% −$4
crypto 4% −$3
world 3% −$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 162 -0.8% -10.3% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 252 -0.6% -10.0% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)252 / 252
History coverage146d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 252 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 27 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 26 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 26 $615 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 26 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 26 $1,017 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 25 $333 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 25 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 25 $586 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 24 $294 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 24 $326 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 24 $718 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $251 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $132 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $216 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $63 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $565 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $293 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $239 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $157 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $241 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $436 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $357 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $254 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $662 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $277 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $335 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $276 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $168 −$1 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $191 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $127 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $170 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $562 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $375 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 3h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 3h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 4h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 7h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 9h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 10h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 12h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 13h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 15h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 19h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 21h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 31h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 33h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 35h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 37h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 3d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 3d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 3d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $55 3d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1515 history records