Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:17:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7384…07d4 other 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-1%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate18%12W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$23
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$14
sports 24% −$2
other 22% +$2
world 15% −$34
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.6% -11.9% 0% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 10 -3.3% -12.5% 0% 0% -13.0%
≤90d 19 -7.2% -16.0% 16% 0% -10.9%
all 67 -1.7% -11.0% 18% 1% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 1% -10.6%
10% -19.5% 1% -19.1%
15% -27.3% 1% -26.9%
20% -34.4% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses12 / 55
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage324d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $146 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $100 −$14 -14%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $70 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $160 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $228 −$6 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $97 −$12 -12%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $55 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $112 +$1 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $119 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $1,286 −$2 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $656 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $658 $0 +0%
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Mar 30 $610 −$13 -2%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $5 +$4 +72%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 10 $7 $0 -7%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 12 $4 $0 +1%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 07 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 06 $3 $0 -11%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Aug 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 04 $22 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 03 $64 −$1 -2%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 01 $7 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 01 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $17 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 25h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 25h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 25h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $19 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $64 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $64 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $26 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $26 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 74¢ $17 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 74¢ $39 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $70 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $70 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $49 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $21 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $70 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $58 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $13 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $79 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $82 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $74 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $41 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $83 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $83 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.30 · official $57.07 (match) · 244 history records