Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:18:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

73
0x7383…bd0b
other · 45 markets active 6d ago
0.0score
+$15,521 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$238 · open +$15,643
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$167,600
Realized−$238
Unrealized+$15,643
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses33 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)39 / 45
History coverage104d
Avg bet$3,052
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%
Chart Positions 8 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$651
14 days+$651
30 days+$651
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $146,773 $162,546 +$15,773 (+11%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $940 $991 +$51 (+5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $968 $991 +$23 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 91¢ 94¢ $911 $945 +$34 (+4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $887 $939 +$52 (+6%)
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $728 $546 −$183 (-25%)
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 74¢ 85¢ $452 $522 +$69 (+15%)
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $168 $110 −$59 (-35%)
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+25%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 07 $170 +$662 +389%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 03 $980 +$20 +2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $2,082 −$69 -3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Apr 12 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 07 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 01 $14,985 +$15 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 24 $499 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $499 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 24 $15,484 +$16 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 20 $498 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 20 $3,242 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 20 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $497 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 18 $72 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $500 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $15,984 +$16 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $5,218 +$2,639 +51%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $240 +$24 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $2,994 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $7,992 +$8 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $2,690 +$871 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 11 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 09 $3,803 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 01 $162 −$4 -2%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 28 $2,814 +$816 +29%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 28 $108 +$192 +178%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 28 $329 +$12 +4%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 26 $2,421 +$495 +20%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $120 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 89% +$15,997
politics 8% +$4,746
world 2% −$6,000
crypto 0% +$662
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? BUY No 56¢ $56 16d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? BUY No 57¢ $70 16d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $968 19d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 91¢ $819 20d
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 22d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? BUY No 57¢ $23 23d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? BUY No 57¢ $21 24d
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 24d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 92¢ $92 24d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? SELL No 68¢ $198 31d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? SELL No 67¢ $130 31d
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $77 33d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? SELL No 65¢ $248 35d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? SELL No 65¢ $13 35d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? SELL No 65¢ $2 36d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? SELL No 65¢ $241 36d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1,523 40d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 42d
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 53d
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 66d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $940 66d
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $75 66d
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 66d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,448 71d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $999 71d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $999 71d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $999 71d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,230 72d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,315 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +144.6% +121.3% 50% 50% +315.8%
≤30d 2 +144.6% +121.3% 50% 50% +315.8%
≤90d 26 +9.7% -0.7% 88% 8% -12.2%
all 39 +13.2% +2.4% 85% 15% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.4% 15% -9.7%
10% -7.4% 13% -18.3%
15% ← realistic here -16.3% 8% -26.2%
20% -24.5% 8% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167,600.16 · official $167,600.16 (match) · 3500 history records