Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:39:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7381…f829 crypto 334 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$53 (+4%) realized +$61 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate71%235W / 97L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$62
14 days+$37
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$33
other 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 +9.2% -1.2% 75% 75% +0.1%
≤30d 332 -0.4% -9.9% 71% 65% -6.6%
≤90d 332 -0.4% -9.9% 71% 65% -6.6%
all 332 -0.4% -9.9% 71% 65% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 65% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 54% -15.5%
15% -26.4% 25% -23.7%
20% -33.6% 11% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses235 / 97
Open positions2
Markets (closed)332 / 334
History coverage17d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 332 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +48%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$5 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +48%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +49%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$4 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +45%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $6 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $8 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $8 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $6 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 617 history records