Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:00:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
73 0x7380…7193 politics 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 656d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$146 (+7%) realized +$138 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate73%76W / 28L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$242now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$11
14 days+$10
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 24% +$66
economics 23% +$53
other 16% −$80
world 14% +$42
crypto 11% +$10
sports 6% +$35
tech 6% +$17
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +16.7% +5.5% 67% 67% +5.4%
≤30d 10 +21.0% +9.5% 80% 70% +10.9%
≤90d 19 +21.6% +10.1% 79% 68% +9.1%
all 104 +1.2% -8.4% 73% 61% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 61% -2.5%
10% -17.2% 37% -11.8%
15% -25.2% 22% -20.3%
20% -32.5% 12% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

656d coverage
Net worth$242
Realized+$138
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses76 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)104 / 123
History coverage656d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 50¢ 50¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? No 86¢ 90¢ $25 $27 +$1 (+5%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 89¢ 94¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 76¢ 81¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+7%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 43¢ 38¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 84¢ 96¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+14%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 79¢ 82¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 74¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+35%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 86¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 99¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+20%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 60¢ 57¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Trump out as President before GTA VI? No 50¢ 50¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 66¢ 88¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+34%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 88¢ 20¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 28 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 27 $19 +$7 +36%
Blue wave in 2026? Jun 25 $20 −$1 -5%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 21 $20 −$1 -7%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $41 +$10 +24%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 08 $5 $0 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 08 $7 +$4 +52%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 08 $9 +$2 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 08 $30 +$15 +51%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 24 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 24 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 24 $5 +$10 +195%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 07 $10 +$2 +19%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 24 $6 +$3 +49%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Apr 24 $10 +$1 +7%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Apr 24 $15 +$4 +27%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 24 $15 −$7 -48%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 25 $10 +$1 +6%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 25 $30 +$8 +28%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 22 $10 +$1 +14%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 22 $30 +$2 +8%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Feb 22 $25 +$7 +30%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 22 $40 +$17 +42%
Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship? Jan 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Jan 09 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jan 09 $5 +$1 +16%
Obama divorce in 2025? Jan 09 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Diddy be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? Jan 09 $7 +$3 +43%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Jan 09 $8 +$2 +27%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Jan 09 $8 +$5 +67%
US recession in 2025? Jan 09 $20 +$7 +35%
Will U.S. summer tourism decline in 2025? Jan 09 $25 +$2 +10%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jan 09 $20 +$7 +36%
Fed rate cut in 2025? Jan 09 $25 +$4 +15%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Jan 09 $21 +$8 +39%
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Thursday? Aug 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 01 $31 −$31 -100%
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025? Aug 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Aug 01 $10 +$1 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal before August? Aug 01 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? Aug 01 $10 +$3 +32%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Aug 01 $25 +$8 +32%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 17 $20 +$4 +20%
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking? Jul 05 $31 −$31 -100%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jul 05 $41 +$11 +26%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 25 $68 +$54 +79%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $15 +$5 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $36 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 86¢ $25 27h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $19 3d
Blue wave in 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $19 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 73¢ $19 7d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 80¢ $19 7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $8 11d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 11d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $30 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $7 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $31 16d
Blue wave in 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 20d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $9 35d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $15 35d
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 45d
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 74¢ $2 45d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their BUY Yes 33¢ $5 45d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 93¢ $11 45d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 66¢ $7 51d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $5 51d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 82¢ $9 65d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $10 65d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 65¢ $30 65d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 65d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 95d
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 95d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? BUY No 94¢ $10 95d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $4 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $242.13 · official $242.14 (match) · 360 history records