Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:31:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7380…5916 crypto 512 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$87 (-2%) realized −$85 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate92%469W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$30
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$79
other 2% +$48
sports 1% −$14
politics 1% +$3
world 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -8.7% -17.4% 45% 45% +12.7%
≤30d 12 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 50% +15.4%
≤90d 496 -1.4% -10.8% 93% 3% -9.2%
all 510 -1.3% -10.7% 92% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 5% -10.0%
10% -19.2% 4% -18.7%
15% -27.0% 3% -26.5%
20% -34.2% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$85
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses469 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)510 / 512
History coverage92d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 510 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$69 +226%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$9 +93%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 23 $3 +$3 +100%
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 23 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 23 $11 +$3 +29%
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 23 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 23 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 23 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 23 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 23 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 23 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 23 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 22 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 22 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 22 $3 +$2 +62%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 22 $6 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 22 $6 −$1 -13%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 22 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 22 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 22 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 22 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 22 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 22 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 22 $3 +$2 +70%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 22 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 22 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 22 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 22 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 22 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 22 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 22 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 22 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $5 2h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $5 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 88¢ $4 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 20¢ $5 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 40¢ $2 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 35¢ $2 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 57d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 57d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 58d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 58d
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 58d
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 58d
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $11 58d
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 58d
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 58d
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 58d
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 58d
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 58d
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.43 · official $8.43 (match) · 1201 history records