Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:25:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
73 0x737e…6e75 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 33d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$52 (+6%) realized +$36 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$198
14 days+$140
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$140
other 22% +$16
world 10% −$86
politics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-57.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -53.5% -57.9% 25% 25% -3.8%
≤90d 4 -53.5% -57.9% 25% 25% -3.8%
all 4 -53.5% -57.9% 25% 25% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.9% 25% -3.8%
10% -61.9% 25% -13.0%
15% -65.6% 25% -21.4%
20% -69.0% 25% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$337 vs −$98 · ×3.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage33d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 43¢ 46¢ $194 $210 +$16 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 14 $200 −$198 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 09 $392 +$337 +86%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $11 −$10 -96%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $86 −$86 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 43¢ $199 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 56¢ $200 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 53¢ $392 10d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 BUY No 8¢ $11 18d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 29d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 1¢ $34 30d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 31d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 32d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.02 · official $210.02 (match) · 11 history records