Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x737d…d0fe weather 402 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$363 (-11%) realized −$362 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate63%251W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$94
14 days−$231
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 93% −$377
sports 7% −$32
other 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -21.1% -28.6% 49% 38% -29.9%
≤30d 218 -11.5% -19.9% 60% 44% -15.7%
≤90d 399 -11.6% -20.0% 63% 51% -20.4%
all 399 -11.6% -20.0% 63% 51% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 51% -20.4%
10% -27.7% 36% -28.0%
15% -34.7% 18% -35.0%
20% -41.1% 7% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$362
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses251 / 148
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)399 / 402
History coverage66d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 399 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Under 27¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will 1 person leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 76¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Under 49¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -36%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +35%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -61%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $2 −$1 -79%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $11 +$3 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$3 +34%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +35%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$1 +47%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) Jun 15 $2 −$1 -35%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $5 −$2 -40%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Kaja Juvan Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 15 $6 −$2 -32%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korp Jun 15 $5 −$3 -64%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 15 $8 −$2 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $4 +$3 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +45%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $21 +$1 +3%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +35%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1 +$1 +67%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $3 +$1 +29%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $3 +$1 +28%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +48%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 64¢ $1 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 66¢ $1 3h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 61¢ $1 3h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever SELL Toronto Tempo 30¢ $1 4h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1 4h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Miami Marlins 24¢ $0 5h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Toronto Tempo 23¢ $2 5h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 24¢ $2 6h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 35¢ $2 9h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic SELL Arthur Rinderknech 58¢ $1 12h
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur SELL Clement Tabur 66¢ $1 13h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin SELL Sofia Kenin 12¢ $0 13h
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur SELL Clement Tabur 64¢ $1 13h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Sofia Kenin 54¢ $2 13h
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 47¢ $2 13h
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa SELL Deborah Chiesa 64¢ $2 15h
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace BUY Francesca Pace $1 16h
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Deborah Chiesa 57¢ $2 16h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 52¢ $2 17h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 56¢ $1 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $3 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $3 23h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 58¢ $1 23h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 93¢ $11 23h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 78¢ $1 27h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 68¢ $1 27h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 79¢ $2 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.04 · official $5.04 (match) · 1015 history records