Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:38:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x737c…1d03 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$44 (-27%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$47
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$1
sports 42% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -28.5% -35.3% 38% 38% -49.3%
≤30d 17 -24.3% -31.5% 41% 41% -46.4%
≤90d 17 -24.3% -31.5% 41% 41% -46.4%
all 17 -24.3% -31.5% 41% 41% -46.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 41% -46.4%
10% -38.0% 35% -51.6%
15% -44.0% 35% -56.3%
20% -49.5% 24% -60.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage8d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $16 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.59 · official $49.59 (match) · 26 history records