Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:45:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
73 0x737c…b2f4 crypto 1634 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 109d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$660 (+1%) realized +$660 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1610W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$11
14 days+$32
30 days+$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$237
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 226 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 1028 +0.5% -9.1% 99% 0% -9.0%
all 1634 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$59 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$660
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1610 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1634 / 1634
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$59
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1634 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $102 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $87 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $99 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 09 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 09 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 09 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 09 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 09 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 08 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $36 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $51 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $51 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $51 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $51 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $51 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $51 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $51 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $51 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $37 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records