Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:47:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x737c…0318 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate73%22W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$1
sports 22% −$2
weather 13% +$2
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 80% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 12 -25.1% -32.3% 58% 0% -9.8%
all 30 -16.5% -24.4% 73% 13% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 13% -9.6%
10% -31.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -38.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -44.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses22 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage110d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $32 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $30 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $33 −$2 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on March 23? Mar 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 23? Mar 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 23? Mar 24 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on March 2 Mar 23 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 22? Mar 22 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on March 2 Mar 22 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 18? Mar 19 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on March 18? Mar 18 $9 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on March 16 Mar 16 $10 $0 -5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 14? Mar 15 $20 $0 +2%
1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 1.5 Mar 14 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on March 12? Mar 13 $20 $0 +1%
LoL: Berlin International Gaming vs The Otter Side (BO3) - EMEA Master Mar 12 $19 +$1 +5%
LoL: Barça eSports vs BRUTE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group 1 Mar 11 $17 +$3 +15%
Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 10 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: Solary vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Champions Round Mar 10 $30 +$2 +6%
NEC vs. FC Volendam: O/U 1.5 Mar 09 $20 +$3 +15%
Houston Cougars vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Mar 08 $20 +$3 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 14d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $0 20d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $0 20d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $1 20d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 21d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 28d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes $0 31d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 32d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes $0 33d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 36d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes $0 38d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 46d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? SELL Yes $1 53d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY Yes $2 55d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY Yes $2 55d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 56d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 67d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY Yes $0 69d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 78d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY Yes $0 80d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 85d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 88d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 92d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 23? BUY No 93¢ $9 93d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on March 23? BUY No 98¢ $9 94d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on March 23? BUY No 98¢ $1 94d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 23? BUY No 98¢ $10 94d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on March 2 BUY No 98¢ $10 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.60 · official $31.60 (match) · 77 history records