Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x737b…4b58 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$27 (+8%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate79%11W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$44
other 28% +$15
crypto 12% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +17.0% +5.9% 79% 64% -13.4%
≤30d 14 +17.0% +5.9% 79% 64% -13.4%
≤90d 14 +17.0% +5.9% 79% 64% -13.4%
all 14 +17.0% +5.9% 79% 64% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.9% 64% -13.4%
10% -4.3% 43% -21.7%
15% -13.5% 29% -29.2%
20% -22.0% 14% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$21 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses11 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $111 −$45 -41%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $61 −$11 -18%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 25 $40 +$15 +36%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $8 +$1 +17%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $25 +$6 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $18 +$7 +36%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $12 +$1 +9%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $6 +$1 +23%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $15 +$9 +61%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $9 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $2 +$3 +152%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $41 32m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $40 37m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 27¢ $24 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 76¢ $71 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $49 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $61 2h
Netherlands leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $55 2h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 18h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 22h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 85¢ $8 22h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 79¢ $25 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $9 26h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $7 26h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $7 26h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 26h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $4 26h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $18 45h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 45h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Portugal 93¢ $25 2d
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 57¢ $15 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 78¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 96¢ $15 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 82¢ $12 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records