Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x737a…8658 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$1
other 16% −$1
politics 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.0% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 13 -0.9% -10.4% 54% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 13 -0.9% -10.4% 54% 0% -9.2%
all 32 -6.9% -15.8% 47% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 0% -9.5%
10% -23.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -31.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -37.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage478d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 87¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $46 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $27 −$1 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $71 +$2 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $44 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 -15%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 24 $1 $0 -12%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $27 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? May 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'The Colors Within' win Crunchyroll's Film of the Year Award for May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 19 $12 $0 -2%
Will Solana dip to $100 in May? May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 17 $15 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon 1,250-1,499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 11 $14 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton be relegated? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $5 $0 -1%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 20 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $45 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $46 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $46 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $46 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $46 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $46 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $18 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $12 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $6 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $32 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $10 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $42 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $19 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $4 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $23 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $42 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $10 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $30 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $41 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $40 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $44 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $14 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $16 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $30 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.74 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records