Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:25:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
73 0x7379…cbf5 sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$91 (-47%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip
Net edge+47%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$82
sports 38% +$16
other 13% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+46.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +62.2% +46.8% 57% 57% -42.9%
≤30d 7 +62.2% +46.8% 57% 57% -42.9%
≤90d 7 +62.2% +46.8% 57% 57% -42.9%
all 7 +62.2% +46.8% 57% 57% -42.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +46.8% 57% -42.9%
10% +32.7% 57% -48.3%
15% +19.9% 57% -53.3%
20% +8.1% 57% -57.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$35 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage7d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$5 -32%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$20 +214%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$9 +94%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +236%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $95 −$82 -86%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $10.33 · 18 history records