Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:19:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
73 0x7377…b880 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8,175 (+91%) realized +$8,272 · open −$97
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$601per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$256est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$343now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$867
14 days+$8,014
30 days+$8,014
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$8,215
politics 5% −$95
other 3% −$203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -60.4% -64.2% 25% 25% -88.6%
≤30d 13 -10.7% -19.2% 38% 31% +96.4%
≤90d 13 -10.7% -19.2% 38% 31% +96.4%
all 13 -10.7% -19.2% 38% 31% +96.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 31% +96.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 15% +77.6%
15% -34.0% 15% +60.5%
20% -40.4% 15% +44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +117% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +117% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,884 vs −$176 · ×10.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.7 per $1 lost it wins $6.7
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$343
Realized+$8,272
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$256
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage12d
Avg bet$601
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $436 $341 −$95 (-22%)
Andrés Gómez: 1+ shots No 88¢ 50¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 −$24 -48%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $188 −$186 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $27 +$14 +52%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$6 +13%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,014 −$622 -61%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,005 +$9,147 +456%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2,061 +$231 +11%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $321 +$22 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $133 −$130 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2,646 −$390 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $31 1h
Andrés Gómez: 1+ shots BUY No 88¢ $4 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $26 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $50 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $8 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $35 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $125 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $36 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $5 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $18 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $23 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 20¢ $20 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 43¢ $87 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 72¢ $155 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 72¢ $61 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 80¢ $320 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 37¢ $555 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 23¢ $39 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 23¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $342.86 · official $342.86 (match) · 105 history records