Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:23:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7375…fa0b world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%4W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$3
politics 15% $0
other 14% $0
finance 9% $0
tech 8% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 1% −$1
weather 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.0% -10.5% 11% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 15 -0.7% -10.2% 7% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 15 -0.7% -10.2% 7% 0% -10.1%
all 38 -0.8% -10.3% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses4 / 34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage318d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $29 −$1 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $29 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $62 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $31 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $30 $0 -1%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 11 $2 $0 -3%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Sep 05 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 10 $59 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? Aug 10 $7 $0 +2%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 10 $84 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 440–454 times August 8–August 15? Aug 10 $9 $0 -2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $0 $0 -4%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 09 $4 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 09 $63 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 08 $73 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 07 $7 $0 +1%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 07 $8 $0 +0%
India x Pakistan military clash by Friday? Aug 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Aug 06 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 06 $43 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 06 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 06 $82 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 06 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $27 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $28 5h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $28 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 31h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 40h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $28 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $29 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $21 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $32 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $20 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $13 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $17 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $31 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $11 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $18 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $31 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $27 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.83 · official $27.40 (match) · 155 history records