Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7373…3964 sports 542 markets active 1h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$21,415 (-9%) realized −$21,452 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate68%362W / 172L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$444per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$237est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,591now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$241
7 days−$201
14 days+$262
30 days+$2,261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$23,697
other 20% +$1,524
politics 8% +$452
crypto 4% +$530
tech 2% −$706
culture 0% +$85
world 0% +$30
economics 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +25.4% +13.5% 62% 62% -17.1%
≤30d 42 +9.6% -0.9% 64% 55% +9.8%
≤90d 42 +9.6% -0.9% 64% 55% +9.8%
all 534 -6.4% -15.3% 68% 35% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 35% -17.1%
10% -23.4% 25% -25.0%
15% -30.8% 20% -32.3%
20% -37.6% 15% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$347 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$1,591
Realized−$21,452
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses362 / 172
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$237
Open positions6
Markets (closed)534 / 542
History coverage294d
Avg bet$444
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 534 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $500 $515 +$15 (+3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? Yes 76¢ 90¢ $152 $180 +$28 (+18%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? No 85¢ 86¢ $152 $154 +$2 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $502 +$93 +18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $557 +$375 +67%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $202 +$72 +36%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $304 −$300 -98%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $35 +$71 +204%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $409 −$405 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $108 +$192 +178%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $587 +$413 +70%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $307 −$304 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $328 +$172 +52%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $134 +$166 +124%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $320 −$320 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $256 +$344 +134%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $183 +$117 +64%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $173 −$171 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $294 −$294 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,104 +$646 +58%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $264 −$260 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $520 +$244 +47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $852 +$649 +76%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $231 +$469 +203%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $580 −$316 -54%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2,556 +$1,486 +58%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $509 −$379 -74%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $2,812 +$42 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $60 +$20 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $48 +$12 +25%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1,080 −$640 -59%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $558 +$149 +27%
Will Team Yandex win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 07 $1,034 +$466 +45%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $675 −$675 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $414 +$186 +45%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $3,250 −$1,488 -46%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $116 +$84 +72%
Will Aurora win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 06 $277 +$6 +2%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $407 −$121 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $184 +$16 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $191 +$9 +5%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $2,005 +$1,745 +87%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Jun 06 $172 +$34 +20%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $164 +$26 +16%
Will Donald Trump say "oil" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Jan 04 $910 +$90 +10%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-02? Jan 03 $220 +$129 +59%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 45m and Jan 02 $885 +$85 +10%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $138 −$138 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 29? Jan 01 $95 +$5 +5%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-12-29? Dec 30 $171 +$114 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $507 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 73¢ $202 24h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $304 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $557 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $304 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 76¢ $114 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? BUY No 85¢ $154 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 76¢ $39 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 40¢ $200 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $209 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $18 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $4 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $21 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $24 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $26 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $9 7d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 7d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 7d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $15 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 61¢ $307 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 58¢ $587 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 65¢ $328 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 48¢ $203 11d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $134 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,590.62 · official $1,590.72 (match) · 2991 history records