Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:56:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

73 0x7373…a6ef sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 292d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$132 (-17%) realized −$132 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip

Net edge-11%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%6W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$40per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit74%portable

Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$210

7 days−$213

14 days−$213

30 days−$143

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-11.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-6.1%	-15.1%	29%	29%	-41.9%
≤30d	18	-2.0%	-11.4%	33%	33%	-28.0%
≤90d	18	-2.0%	-11.4%	33%	33%	-28.0%
all	18	-2.0%	-11.4%	33%	33%	-28.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-11.4%	33%	-28.0%
10%	-19.9%	22%	-34.9%
15%	-27.6%	22%	-41.2%
20%	-34.7%	22%	-46.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 62% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -2% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +83% → late -87% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$30 vs −$27 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.56 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

292d coverage

Net worth$62

Realized−$132

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses6 / 12

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage292d

Avg bet$40

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	77¢	78¢	$62	$62	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	Jun 29	$55	+$8	+15%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 29	$67	−$66	-98%
North Carolina State vs. Wake Forest	Jun 29	$3	−$3	-100%
Pirates vs. Orioles	Jun 29	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 29	$50	−$50	-100%
Japan to win the second half?	Jun 29	$10	−$10	-100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 29	$10	−$10	-100%
Dream vs. Sun	Jun 29	$15	−$15	-100%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden?	Jun 29	$28	−$28	-100%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 29	$99	−$66	-66%
Japan leading at halftime?	Jun 29	$5	+$40	+786%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 AND Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden?	Jun 26	$20	+$10	+52%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands?	Jun 26	$20	+$29	+144%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$76	−$47	-62%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Netherlands?	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands?	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-92%
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime?	Jun 25	$110	+$20	+18%
Spurs vs. Thunder	May 31	$105	+$70	+67%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	BUY No	77¢	$62	1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	SELL Germany	51¢	$63	2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	BUY Germany	36¢	$10	2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	BUY Germany	35¢	$20	2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	BUY Germany	60¢	$24	2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	88¢	$50	7h
Japan to win the second half?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	8h
Japan leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	8h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	12¢	$10	4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	8¢	$9	4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	7¢	$2	4d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 AND Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden?	BUY	65¢	$20	4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	13¢	$18	4d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands?	BUY	40¢	$20	4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	25¢	$25	4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	27¢	$51	4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Netherlands?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Netherlands?	BUY Yes	20¢	$10	4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands?	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	4d
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden?	BUY Yes	23¢	$24	4d
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden?	BUY Yes	23¢	$0	4d
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden?	BUY Yes	23¢	$2	4d
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden?	BUY Yes	23¢	$3	4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	4d
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$130	4d
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	79¢	$22	4d
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	79¢	$2	4d
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	86¢	$86	4d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Knicks	1¢	$2	20d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	14¢	$3	20d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.00 · official $62.00 (match) · 65 history records