Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:17:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7370…a74d crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (155 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$13 (-6%) realized −$12 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day155.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (155 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -23.8% -31.0% 40% 13% -21.8%
≤30d 15 -23.8% -31.0% 40% 13% -21.8%
≤90d 15 -23.8% -31.0% 40% 13% -21.8%
all 15 -23.8% -31.0% 40% 13% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover155.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.0% 13% -21.8%
10% ← realistic here -37.6% 7% -29.3%
15% -43.7% 7% -36.1%
20% -49.2% 7% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day155.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 27¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$13 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$14 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $11 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $8 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.85 · official $0.93 (match) · 168 history records