Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:48:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x736e…a144 world 259 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$338 (-14%) realized −$189 · open −$149
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%71W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$524now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$82
14 days+$81
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$212
other 31% −$147
sports 11% +$89
crypto 8% −$57
weather 7% −$38
politics 4% +$21
finance 2% −$19
tech 2% +$14
culture 1% −$2
economics 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +7.8% -2.5% 42% 40% +7.4%
≤30d 115 -4.1% -13.2% 37% 36% +0.0%
≤90d 186 -9.3% -17.9% 38% 34% -20.5%
all 186 -9.3% -17.9% 38% 34% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 34% -20.5%
10% -25.8% 32% -28.1%
15% -33.0% 30% -35.0%
20% -39.5% 26% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$524
Realized−$189
Unrealized−$149
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses71 / 115
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions73
Markets (closed)186 / 259
History coverage75d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 73 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? Yes 15¢ 40¢ $15 $40 +$24 (+163%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $16 $22 +$6 (+38%)
Will Kylian Mbappe score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 68¢ $11 $22 +$11 (+96%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 54¢ 40¢ $24 $18 −$6 (-25%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 57¢ 66¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 71¢ 57¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-19%)
Will Kylian Mbappe score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 76¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+64%)
Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy? Yes 56¢ 52¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 86¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 80¢ 95¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+19%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-20%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 38¢ 17¢ $27 $12 −$15 (-55%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 18¢ 13¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-28%)
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-30%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Will Bernardo Silva score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 49¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Yes 64¢ 93¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+45%)
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Real Madrid? Yes 23¢ 42¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+79%)
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? Yes 64¢ 46¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Brahim Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 25¢ 44¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte Jun 20 $10 +$5 +47%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $17 +$13 +77%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $13 +$10 +74%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $27 +$42 +156%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $45 +$32 +71%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -72%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $3 +$7 +226%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Cody Gakpo: 3+ goals Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $4 −$1 -36%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 19 $2 +$3 +133%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $3 −$2 -66%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $7 +$9 +128%
Jonathan David: 3+ goals Jun 19 $5 +$5 +95%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 18 $6 +$7 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$9 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 19? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$8 +152%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -75%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$20 +325%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $12 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$10 +981%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +115%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $5 +$8 +148%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +71%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +49%
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $15 −$5 -33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +145%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $10 4m
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte SELL Yes 91¢ $15 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 93¢ $30 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $15 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $22 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No $2 3h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No $1 3h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 3h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $10 4h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5h
Cody Gakpo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $2 5h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $2 5h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $3 6h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 6h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Real Madrid? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 9h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $5 9h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 9h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No $3 9h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 91¢ $17 9h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 24h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 24h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 24h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 31¢ $4 24h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $1 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 24h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $523.75 · official $524.01 (match) · 596 history records