Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x736e…117f crypto 188 markets active 4d ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$124 (-8%) realized −$124 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%92W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$27
14 days−$93
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -21.5% -29.0% 43% 43% -24.0%
≤30d 171 -8.2% -17.0% 50% 50% -15.6%
≤90d 188 -11.0% -19.5% 49% 49% -18.1%
all 188 -11.0% -19.5% 49% 49% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 49% -18.1%
10% -27.2% 48% -25.9%
15% -34.2% 48% -33.1%
20% -40.7% 47% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses92 / 96
Open positions0
Markets (closed)188 / 188
History coverage46d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 188 Trades
no open positions (95 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$7 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +82%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +91%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$3 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +77%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $9 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $17 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $19 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $4 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $7 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $7 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 361 history records