Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:26:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x736c…184f crypto 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$301 (+11%) realized +$301 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate27%31W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$545
7 days−$342
14 days−$342
30 days−$520
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$507
world 2% −$9
other 0% −$1
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +10.4% -0.2% 27% 27% -31.6%
≤30d 114 -19.8% -27.4% 27% 22% -34.6%
≤90d 114 -19.8% -27.4% 27% 22% -34.6%
all 114 -19.8% -27.4% 27% 22% -34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 22% -34.6%
10% -34.4% 21% -40.9%
15% -40.7% 18% -46.6%
20% -46.5% 18% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$15 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$301
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses31 / 83
Open positions0
Markets (closed)114 / 114
History coverage25d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 114 Trades
no open positions (76 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$7 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 28 $126 −$120 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $109 −$30 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $148 −$31 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 28 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $121 −$15 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $114 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $177 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $63 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $166 −$110 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 25 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $24 +$140 +581%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$203 +965%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $37 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $37 −$15 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$25 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$24 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 24 $119 −$11 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$48 +450%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 24 $28 −$15 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$26 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$57 +357%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $37 −$20 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $25 −$12 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$42 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$62 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$6 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 396 history records