Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:12:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x736c…bc72 crypto 10 markets active 3h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17,117 (-20%) realized −$13,579 · open −$3,538
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,701per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$31,161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$20,065
crypto 0% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -11.5% -19.9% 38% 38% -38.4%
≤30d 9 -21.3% -28.8% 33% 33% -38.5%
≤90d 9 -21.3% -28.8% 33% 33% -38.5%
all 9 -21.3% -28.8% 33% 33% -38.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.8% 33% -38.5%
10% ← realistic here -35.6% 33% -44.4%
15% -41.9% 33% -49.8%
20% -47.6% 22% -54.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$2,784 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$31,161
Realized−$13,579
Unrealized−$3,538
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage12d
Avg bet$8,701
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $34,699 $31,161 −$3,538 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $62 +$34 +56%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $48,622 −$15,762 -32%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,912 −$591 -31%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $809 −$47 -6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $128 −$127 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $92 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $73 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $96 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $18,528 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $16,661 20h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8,196 20h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,321 20h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $762 20h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14,567 20h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10,098 20h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $27,030 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21,592 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,912 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $502 10d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $307 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31,161.02 · official $31,161.02 (match) · 44 history records