Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:31:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
73 0x736c…b23f other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$81 (-15%) realized −$96 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 108d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$105
world 37% −$196
sports 8% +$21
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -7.2% -16.0% 50% 50% +25.5%
≤30d 6 -7.2% -16.0% 50% 50% +25.5%
≤90d 6 -7.2% -16.0% 50% 50% +25.5%
all 7 -20.5% -28.0% 43% 43% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 43% -25.7%
10% -34.9% 43% -32.8%
15% -41.2% 43% -39.3%
20% -47.0% 29% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$53 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage108d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 78¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$56 +55%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $41 +$21 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $99 +$52 +52%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? Mar 03 $196 −$196 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $157 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3h
United States to score first vs. Australia? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 3h
United States to score first vs. Australia? BUY Yes 66¢ $41 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 11h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $99 27h
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? BUY Yes 26¢ $196 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.42 · official $65.42 (match) · 12 history records