Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:57:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

73
0x736a…c552
crypto · 89 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$22 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$39 · open +$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses36 / 46
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)82 / 89
History coverage90d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 7 History 82 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 38¢ 77¢ $9 $18 +$9 (+103%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? No 32¢ 52¢ $8 $12 +$5 (+64%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 32¢ 66¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+109%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? No 40¢ 42¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Top Esports 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Top Esports 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Bilibili Gaming 61¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 4 Winner BNK FEARX 39¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Under 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $29 −$28 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$3 -56%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$3 +61%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $18 +$23 +127%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$3 +63%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $2 +$6 +307%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $43 $0 -1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$1 +23%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $14 +$14 +98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 +$4 +70%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$10 +164%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 17 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 17 $6 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 17 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 17 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 16 $17 −$15 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 16 $6 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 16 $5 +$15 +309%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 16 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 16 $27 −$27 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 16 $29 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 16 $16 −$15 -99%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 4 Winner Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 50% −$47
sports 42% −$6
world 6% +$20
other 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 61¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 41¢ $1 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Top Esports 1¢ $1 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 38¢ $5 2h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 23¢ $8 3h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 31¢ $10 6h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 19¢ $2 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 40¢ $5 6h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $5 7h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $8 7h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 57¢ $11 7h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 7h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 31¢ $5 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 40¢ $5 8h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 39¢ $5 8h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $5 8h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $10 8h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 8h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $8 11h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $8 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 23¢ $3 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 32¢ $5 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 38¢ $9 19h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 19h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $8 19h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $10 20h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 21h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 32¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -7.6% -16.4% 46% 38% -5.3%
≤30d 26 -7.6% -16.4% 46% 38% -5.3%
≤90d 60 -4.3% -13.4% 42% 37% -16.2%
all 82 -6.8% -15.7% 44% 40% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 40% -16.6%
10% -23.7% 37% -24.6%
15% -31.1% 32% -31.9%
20% -37.9% 28% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.29 · official $46.29 (match) · 159 history records