Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:20:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

73
0x7365…64da
tech · 305 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$19,859 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$17,780 · open +$1,802
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP tech specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$27,291
Realized+$17,780
Unrealized+$1,802
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses124 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions82
Markets (closed)237 / 305
History coverage48d
Avg bet$475
Trades / day68.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 82 History 237 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,629
7 days+$7,178
14 days+$6,495
30 days+$7,454
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 52¢ 48¢ $5,038 $4,619 −$419 (-8%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 36¢ 48¢ $2,271 $3,055 +$784 (+35%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 96¢ $2,552 $2,782 +$230 (+9%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 77¢ 90¢ $2,286 $2,673 +$387 (+17%)
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $1,488 $1,560 +$73 (+5%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 36¢ 82¢ $506 $1,168 +$662 (+131%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $854 $804 −$50 (-6%)
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? No 71¢ 88¢ $534 $666 +$132 (+25%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $608 $561 −$47 (-8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $615 $560 −$55 (-9%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? No 42¢ 48¢ $461 $521 +$60 (+13%)
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $435 $506 +$71 (+16%)
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $486 $497 +$11 (+2%)
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $578 $491 −$86 (-15%)
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $418 $472 +$54 (+13%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $422 $461 +$38 (+9%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 35¢ 61¢ $265 $459 +$194 (+73%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? No 77¢ 96¢ $354 $441 +$87 (+25%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $694 $427 −$267 (-38%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Yes 24¢ 32¢ $233 $314 +$81 (+35%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? Yes 64¢ 42¢ $456 $294 −$162 (-35%)
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes 73¢ 81¢ $231 $255 +$24 (+10%)
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? No 51¢ 78¢ $148 $228 +$80 (+54%)
OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31? OpenAI 30¢ 37¢ $181 $223 +$42 (+23%)
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam? No 22¢ 82¢ $54 $201 +$147 (+271%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$3 -269%
Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -89%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -84%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 12 $156 +$299 +192%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $153 −$10 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $36 +$2 +6%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $558 +$146 +26%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1,575 +$149 +10%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $302 +$33 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $611 +$65 +11%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 10 $88 −$10 -11%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $884 +$666 +75%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Jun 10 $776 +$301 +39%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $208 +$21 +10%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 09 $45 +$90 +200%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 09 $44 +$90 +204%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 14? Jun 09 $267 +$33 +12%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 13? Jun 09 $244 +$46 +19%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $705 +$317 +45%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3,006 +$1,000 +33%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $2,342 +$2,111 +90%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $570 +$203 +36%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $81 +$43 +53%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4,398 +$484 +11%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 18? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 16? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3,284 +$1,138 +35%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $656 +$3 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 08 $94 −$9 -10%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $71 −$22 -30%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $10 +$10 +92%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 06 $10 −$9 -90%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 06 $10 −$9 -86%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460? Jun 06 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480? Jun 06 $67 +$6 +9%
Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by June 30? Jun 05 $22 +$2 +10%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 03 $1,153 +$133 +12%
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $30 −$3 -10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $323 +$22 +7%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $596 −$19 -3%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31? Jun 02 $696 +$124 +18%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 02 $30 +$7 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $47 −$47 -100%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $214 −$119 -56%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $366 −$100 -27%
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? Jun 01 $119 +$3 +3%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,674 +$158 +9%
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +26%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between May 25 and May 31, 2026? May 30 $21 −$20 -93%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $10 −$9 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 47% +$6,001
other 36% +$12,284
world 11% +$922
finance 3% −$288
politics 2% +$695
economics 1% −$24
culture 0% +$5
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $456 6m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 19¢ $30 9m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 19¢ $95 9m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 19¢ $18 10m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 20¢ $153 29m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 48¢ $96 2h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 3h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 3h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 3h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 3h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $19 3h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 4h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 5h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 5h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5h
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market clos BUY Yes 5¢ $4 5h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 5h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 6h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 6h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 6h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 6h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 6h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +24.2% +12.4% 76% 55% +20.9%
≤30d 150 +5.7% -4.4% 49% 35% +0.0%
≤90d 237 +20.3% +8.8% 52% 32% +5.0%
all 237 +20.3% +8.8% 52% 32% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover68.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.8% 32% +5.0%
10% ← realistic here -1.6% 24% -5.0%
15% -11.1% 18% -14.2%
20% -19.8% 15% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,290.91 · official $27,287.94 (match) · 3500 history records