Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
73 0x735c…55ed sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$381 (+4%) realized +$381 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate68%21W / 10L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$277per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$280
7 days−$153
14 days+$349
30 days+$353
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$178
other 25% +$127
crypto 8% +$404
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +45.4% +31.5% 63% 42% -12.3%
≤30d 31 +26.8% +14.7% 68% 42% -5.8%
≤90d 31 +26.8% +14.7% 68% 42% -5.8%
all 31 +26.8% +14.7% 68% 42% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.7% 42% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here +3.7% 32% -14.8%
15% -6.3% 19% -23.0%
20% -15.5% 19% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$142 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$381
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses21 / 10
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage23d
Avg bet$277
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $169 −$124 -73%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $14 +$164 +1180%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $258 +$9 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $366 +$35 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $907 +$34 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $403 −$5 -1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $300 +$185 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$19 +23%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $68 −$68 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $376 −$373 -99%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $251 −$250 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $300 +$19 +6%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $406 +$208 +51%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $125 +$13 +11%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 11 $279 +$75 +27%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $250 −$162 -65%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $84 +$10 +12%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $300 +$95 +32%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $168 +$11 +6%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mboko/Williams vs Melichar/Routliffe Jun 09 $300 −$300 -100%
Libema Open: Tamara Korpatsch vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 09 $101 +$19 +19%
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Jun 09 $150 +$88 +59%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $655 +$404 +62%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $1,298 +$70 +5%
Will Poland vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $85 +$1 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $503 +$272 +54%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $159 +$36 +22%
Casper Ruud vs. Roman Safiullin: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $61 −$39 -65%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $84 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 25¢ $34 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 31¢ $48 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 34¢ $56 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 34¢ $7 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 34¢ $4 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 34¢ $3 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 34¢ $8 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 34¢ $5 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 34¢ $15 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 25¢ $1 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 25¢ $13 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 25¢ $3 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 25¢ $15 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $89 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $5 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $10 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $58 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $10 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under $0 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under $5 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under $2 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under $3 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under $3 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 60¢ $304 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 60¢ $60 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 484 history records