Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
73 0x735c…3e31 crypto 206 markets active 2h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+0%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%188W / 15L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$338now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$39
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 33 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 70 +0.2% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 203 +0.1% -9.4% 93% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.93 per $1 lost it wins $2.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$338
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses188 / 15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)203 / 206
History coverage180d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $156 $156 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $133 $133 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 22? Jun 22 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 20? Jun 20 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 19? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 19? Jun 19 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 18? Jun 18 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 18? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 17? Jun 17 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 17? Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 16? Jun 16 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 14? Jun 14 $334 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $335 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $335 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $333 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 7? Jun 08 $333 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $333 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $333 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $331 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $241 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $329 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.15 on May 31? Jun 01 $142 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $65 on May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 on May 31? Jun 01 $155 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 30? May 30 $302 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? May 28 $302 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? May 26 $301 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 18-24? May 25 $301 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 24? May 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 24? May 24 $214 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 24? May 24 $43 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 22? May 22 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 19? May 19 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on May 15? May 15 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? May 07 $291 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 6? May 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 April 27-May 3? May 04 $326 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 01 $326 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $326 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 25? Apr 25 $325 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 23? Apr 23 $325 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 20? Apr 20 $325 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 April 13-19? Apr 20 $324 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 17? Apr 18 $324 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 16? Apr 16 $324 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 15? Apr 16 $323 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 14? Apr 15 $323 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 13? Apr 14 $323 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $156 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $49 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $133 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $156 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $182 4d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $21 5d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $100 5d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $35 5d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 6d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $103 8d
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 8d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $135 8d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 8d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $9 8d
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $29 8d
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $334 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $335 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $335 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $27 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $306 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $333 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $333 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $21 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $5 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $5 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $302 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $331 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $87 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $166 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $76 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.13 · official $338.13 (match) · 510 history records