Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7354…430f other 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,622 (+5%) realized +$6,920 · open −$298
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate79%145W / 38L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$658per market
Trades / day36.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$2,023now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 91d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$5,017
sports 0% −$107
world 0% +$10
crypto 0% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -21.0% -28.5% 65% 41% -6.3%
≤30d 84 -11.3% -19.8% 68% 36% -12.4%
≤90d 182 +1.6% -8.0% 80% 38% -11.5%
all 183 +1.1% -8.5% 79% 38% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 38% -13.0%
10% -17.3% 12% -21.3%
15% ← realistic here -25.3% 8% -28.9%
20% -32.6% 4% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$811) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$445 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$2,023
Realized+$6,920
Unrealized−$298
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses145 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)183 / 192
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$658
Trades / day36.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $755 $795 +$40 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $263 $263 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 60¢ 25¢ $568 $235 −$333 (-59%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 76¢ $232 $226 −$5 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $184 $184 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 83¢ $110 $107 −$3 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $104 $105 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $81 $82 +$2 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $405 +$28 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $74 −$73 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $72 +$28 +40%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $288 +$40 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $449 +$100 +22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $79 +$21 +26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $88 +$12 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $80 +$8 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $431 +$95 +22%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $87 +$13 +14%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $228 +$42 +18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $86 +$14 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1,416 −$147 -10%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $70 +$30 +44%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $89 +$11 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $978 +$30 +3%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $91 +$9 +10%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $25 −$24 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $847 +$39 +5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $343 +$157 +46%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $474 +$26 +6%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $58 +$42 +73%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1,348 +$67 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $310 +$14 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $78 +$22 +29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $85 +$15 +17%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $80 +$20 +24%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $92 +$8 +8%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 +$41 +474%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $379 +$40 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $175 +$25 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $484 −$344 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $163 +$7 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $18 59m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $28 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $185 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $84 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $60 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $59 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $104 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $16 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $15 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $15 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 73¢ $74 4h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $42 5h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $42 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 72¢ $72 7h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $77 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $79 9h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $29 9h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $264 9h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $14 9h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $11 9h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 82¢ $82 14h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $98 18h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $14 20h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $10 20h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $10 20h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $45 20h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $1 24h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $25 25h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $8 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,022.96 · official $2,022.96 (match) · 3500 history records