Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:37:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
73 0x7353…b6c5 weather 1452 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,103 (+12%) realized +$1,947 · open +$156
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate78%1225W / 343L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3,160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 107d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 76% +$3,378
crypto 22% −$202
other 1% +$25
world 1% +$10
sports 0% −$31
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 328 -7.5% -16.3% 51% 17% -58.1%
≤30d 1204 -0.4% -9.9% 79% 19% -43.2%
≤90d 1395 -0.6% -10.1% 79% 27% -41.6%
all 1568 -0.9% -10.3% 78% 30% -38.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 30% -38.1%
10% -18.9% 14% -44.0%
15% -26.7% 6% -49.4%
20% -33.9% 4% -54.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$41 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$3,160
Realized+$1,947
Unrealized+$156
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses1225 / 343
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions20
Markets (closed)1568 / 1452
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 1568 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 29? No 94¢ 99¢ $1,501 $1,582 +$82 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 29? No 76¢ 74¢ $600 $586 −$14 (-2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 29? No 81¢ 100¢ $100 $124 +$24 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 28? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 29? Yes 85¢ 96¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 28? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 28? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 28? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 28? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 29? Yes 68¢ 67¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 29? Yes 18¢ 26¢ $25 $36 +$11 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 29? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+6%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 28? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+77%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 272 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$123 -15757%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 29 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 29 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 29 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$63 -2726%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 29 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$327 -42443%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 29 $134 −$134 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$318 -41050%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 29 $242 −$242 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$410 -54916%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$118 -7629%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$147 -18985%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 29 $142 −$142 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 29 $573 −$573 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 29 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$78 -5039%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $246 −$246 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $164 −$164 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $2 +$44 +2074%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$80 -3450%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$272 -35243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 29 $2 +$18 +1087%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 68¢ $102 2m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 96¢ $100 33m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 97¢ $100 35m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 94¢ $100 36m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 29? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 29? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 29? BUY No 76¢ $506 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 94¢ $296 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 29? BUY No 75¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 93¢ $283 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 94¢ $625 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 28? BUY Yes 85¢ $101 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 29? BUY Yes 85¢ $101 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 28? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 96¢ $100 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 29? BUY No 81¢ $101 5h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 94¢ $100 5h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 28? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 6h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 28? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 28? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 28? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 28? BUY No 94¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 28? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY No 90¢ $1,005 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,160.14 · official $3,145.59 (match) · 3500 history records