Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:29:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
73 0x7350…9dc0 other 539 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$390 (-0%) realized −$711 · open +$321
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%267W / 257L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$921now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days+$788
14 days+$807
30 days+$1,102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$72
sports 4% −$256
world 2% +$142
finance 1% +$41
tech 1% −$85
crypto 0% +$6
economics 0% −$3
politics 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +7.8% -2.5% 62% 58% +32.4%
≤30d 56 +12.5% +1.8% 52% 48% +18.9%
≤90d 245 -14.2% -22.3% 39% 38% -12.1%
all 524 +0.1% -9.5% 51% 47% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 47% -10.1%
10% -18.1% 40% -18.7%
15% -26.0% 33% -26.6%
20% -33.3% 25% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$73 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$921
Realized−$711
Unrealized+$321
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses267 / 257
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions15
Markets (closed)524 / 539
History coverage240d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 524 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $163 $260 +$98 (+60%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 0¢ 80¢ $0 $149 +$149 (+0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 0¢ 64¢ $0 $50 +$50 (+0%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 0¢ 64¢ $0 $49 +$49 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 81¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+31%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-36%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+15%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $30 $5 −$25 (-83%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 +$16 +62%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $20 −$13 -69%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $150 +$18 +12%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$14 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 +$83 +55%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$19 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $152 +$97 +64%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $305 +$387 +127%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$222 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$10 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 −$3 -4%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$22 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$26 +101%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 +$67 +262%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $303 +$132 +44%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $100 +$29 +29%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 02 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 02 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 02 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 02 $26 −$25 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $304 +$213 +70%
Will Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 24 $10 +$33 +325%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? May 24 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? May 24 $26 +$66 +259%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? May 24 $26 +$70 +272%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? May 24 $26 +$78 +303%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $304 +$100 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $151 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $150 27h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $51 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $98 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $203 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 7d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 7d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $920.62 · official $920.45 (match) · 1381 history records