Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:50:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x734f…ae45 other 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 108L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$366per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$23
politics 30% −$15
sports 11% +$33
tech 4% −$2
crypto 3% −$1
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 82 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 117 +0.7% -8.9% 8% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 3% -9.5%
10% -17.6% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×9.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage134d
Avg bet$366
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $317 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $323 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $50 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $237 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $323 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 17 $295 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $333 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $305 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $302 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $294 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $237 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $253 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $274 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $288 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $334 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $327 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $266 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $993 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $308 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 29 $592 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $346 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $334 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $251 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 21 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $298 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $330 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 19 $335 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $294 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $298 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $324 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $350 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $255 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $347 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $319 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $275 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $345 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $306 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $262 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $271 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $351 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,465 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $47 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 4d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 5d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 17d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 23d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 24d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 24d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 25d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $237 25d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $237 27d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $239 28d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $239 33d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $323 36d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $323 37d
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $295 37d
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $295 39d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $270 39d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $270 47d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $333 48d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $333 48d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $305 48d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $305 48d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $282 48d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $282 49d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $302 49d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $302 50d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $294 50d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $294 50d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $237 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.98 · official $46.98 (match) · 389 history records