Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:29:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
73 0x734f…6009 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,058 (+23%) realized +$1,065 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%22W / 18L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$312
7 days+$841
14 days+$1,034
30 days+$1,034
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$1,140
sports 4% +$31
crypto 2% −$102
politics 1% −$4
world 1% −$34
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -6.9% -15.8% 58% 54% +8.6%
≤30d 32 -9.5% -18.1% 53% 50% +11.0%
≤90d 38 -15.2% -23.3% 53% 45% +10.9%
all 40 -14.1% -22.3% 55% 45% +10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 45% +10.8%
10% -29.7% 32% +0.2%
15% -36.5% 30% -9.5%
20% -42.7% 15% -18.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$29 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.94 per $1 lost it wins $2.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$1,065
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage205d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 93¢ 86¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$39 +39%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $556 +$276 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$27 +177%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,505 +$180 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $301 +$18 +6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$30 +30%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $279 −$279 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $204 +$284 +139%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $756 +$271 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$49 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$6 +18%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$16 +16%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$233 +228%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Apr 08 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-29? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Apr 08 $1 $0 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 08 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 30? Dec 01 $1 $0 +14%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Dec 01 $21 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 86¢ $140 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $833 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $203 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 23h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 26h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $42 42h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,505 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 98¢ $131 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $319 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $301 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $487 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $253 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.03 · official $52.03 (match) · 100 history records