Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x734f…18fe crypto 24 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-4%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$1
sports 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -22.6% -29.9% 50% 42% -13.4%
≤30d 24 -22.6% -29.9% 50% 42% -13.4%
≤90d 24 -22.6% -29.9% 50% 42% -13.4%
all 24 -22.6% -29.9% 50% 42% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.9% 42% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -36.6% 25% -21.7%
15% -42.8% 21% -29.2%
20% -48.4% 8% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $1 $0 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 18¢ $1 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B SELL Forsaken 30¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 6d
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G SELL Saigon Warriors 100¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 6d
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G BUY Saigon Warriors 66¢ $1 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Forsaken 22¢ $1 6d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY Bilibili Gaming Junior 8¢ $1 6d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia BUY CTBC Flying Oyster Academy 33¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records