Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:32:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
73 0x734f…69bb sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$442 (-6%) realized −$442 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$442per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$442
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +22.8% +11.1% 100% 100% +11.1%
≤30d 1 +22.8% +11.1% 100% 100% +11.1%
≤90d 1 +22.8% +11.1% 100% 100% +11.1%
all 17 -16.2% -24.2% 47% 47% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 47% -14.5%
10% -31.4% 47% -22.7%
15% -38.1% 41% -30.2%
20% -44.1% 35% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$634) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -56% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$443 vs −$443 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$442
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage108d
Avg bet$442
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Canadiens vs. Ducks Mar 07 $475 +$475 +100%
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets Mar 06 $517 +$478 +92%
Hurricanes vs. Oilers Mar 06 $664 −$664 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Devils Mar 05 $634 +$586 +92%
Predators vs. Blue Jackets Mar 04 $283 +$222 +79%
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies Mar 04 $322 −$322 -100%
Thunder vs. Knicks Mar 04 $304 −$304 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers Mar 03 $718 +$612 +85%
Knicks vs. Raptors Mar 03 $430 −$430 -100%
Pelicans vs. Clippers Mar 02 $438 +$197 +45%
Avalanche vs. Kings Mar 02 $410 −$410 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Penguins Mar 01 $1,027 −$1,027 -100%
Bucks vs. Bulls Mar 01 $303 −$303 -100%
Sabres vs. Panthers Feb 28 $900 +$975 +108%
Penguins vs. Rangers Feb 28 $356 −$356 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Feb 27 $170 −$170 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $6 58m
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 40¢ $4 35d
Hurricanes vs. Oilers BUY Oilers 48¢ $664 101d
Canadiens vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 50¢ $475 101d
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 52¢ $517 102d
Maple Leafs vs. Devils BUY Devils 52¢ $551 103d
Maple Leafs vs. Devils BUY Devils 52¢ $83 103d
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 32¢ $151 103d
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 32¢ $171 103d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 36¢ $181 103d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 36¢ $123 103d
Predators vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 56¢ $280 104d
Predators vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 56¢ $3 104d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 43¢ $430 104d
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers BUY Blue Jackets 54¢ $718 105d
Avalanche vs. Kings BUY Kings 38¢ $66 105d
Avalanche vs. Kings BUY Kings 38¢ $344 105d
Golden Knights vs. Penguins BUY Golden Knights 58¢ $1,027 106d
Pelicans vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 69¢ $438 106d
Bucks vs. Bulls BUY Bucks 60¢ $303 106d
Penguins vs. Rangers BUY Penguins 52¢ $356 107d
Sabres vs. Panthers BUY Sabres 48¢ $471 108d
Sabres vs. Panthers BUY Sabres 48¢ $429 108d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Nuggets 26¢ $170 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.01 · official $6.01 (match) · 32 history records