Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:50:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x734e…7eb5 crypto 351 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,795 (+9%) realized +$1,795 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate62%218W / 133L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days+$161
14 days+$321
30 days+$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$1,528
crypto 23% +$197
other 0% +$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +20.8% +9.3% 62% 62% +6.5%
≤30d 96 -10.8% -19.3% 47% 47% +0.6%
≤90d 203 -19.7% -27.3% 37% 36% -11.8%
all 351 -3.1% -12.3% 62% 29% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 29% -1.6%
10% -20.7% 27% -11.0%
15% -28.4% 25% -19.6%
20% -35.4% 24% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$18 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,795
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses218 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)351 / 351
History coverage232d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 351 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$20 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$50 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$50 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11PM ET Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$15 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$50 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$20 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$50 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$50 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$50 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$50 +99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$50 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$50 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$13 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$50 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$50 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$20 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$20 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$20 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$20 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$20 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6AM ET Jun 07 $20 +$20 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 2AM ET Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 11PM ET Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4PM ET Jun 05 $20 +$20 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1PM ET Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4AM ET Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12AM ET Jun 05 $20 +$20 +99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8AM ET Jun 04 $20 +$20 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3PM ET Jun 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 1PM ET Jun 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 7AM ET Jun 03 $41 +$30 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 6AM ET Jun 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 4AM ET Jun 03 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3AM ET Jun 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11PM ET Jun 03 $41 −$40 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET Jun 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 5PM ET Jun 02 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$9 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11PM ET Jun 02 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? Jun 01 $14 +$2 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$9 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $51 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 1362 history records