Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:44:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x734e…8900 world 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 539d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$26 (+1%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate40%40W / 59L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$4
other 16% +$3
politics 10% +$19
sports 10% +$8
economics 5% $0
culture 4% −$8
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 25 -2.4% -11.7% 40% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 56 -1.0% -10.4% 38% 0% -9.3%
all 99 +0.6% -8.9% 40% 6% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 6% -8.8%
10% -17.7% 5% -17.6%
15% -25.6% 4% -25.5%
20% -32.9% 4% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

539d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses40 / 59
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage539d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $89 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $179 +$2 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $30 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $77 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $118 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $69 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $195 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $72 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $104 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $97 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $116 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $32 +$2 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $37 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $65 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $37 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $32 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $3 $0 -4%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $33 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $70 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $64 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $35 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $8 $0 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $65 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $99 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $1 $0 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 07 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 05 $5 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 04 $61 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $36 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $36 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $36 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $39 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $23 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $31 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $22 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $17 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $39 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $28 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $28 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $39 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $39 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 13¢ $0 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $32 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $7 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $40 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $5 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $39 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $39 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $39 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $39 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 71¢ $1 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $12 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.18 · official $3.18 (match) · 361 history records