Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
73 0x734b…6d7a tech 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+1%) realized +$40 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%11W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$894now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 82d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% +$2
tech 39% +$33
finance 21% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +2.8% -6.9% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤90d 11 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.2%
all 11 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 0% -8.2%
10% -17.0% 0% -17.0%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.0%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$894
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses11 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage82d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $328 $328 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $229 $229 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $171 $171 −$1 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $167 $166 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 17 $892 +$2 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 19 $119 +$2 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 19 $205 +$8 +4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 19 $228 +$3 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 19 $306 +$23 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? Apr 02 $132 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $132 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $132 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 02 $143 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 02 $147 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 02 $172 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $893.63 · official $893.63 (match) · 27 history records