Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:14:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7348…0a82 crypto 916 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$243 (-5%) realized −$242 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%456W / 458L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$52
14 days−$111
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$219
sports 14% −$99
other 0% −$2
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 260 -4.9% -13.9% 50% 50% -14.0%
≤30d 517 -10.9% -19.4% 46% 46% -14.8%
≤90d 661 -10.9% -19.4% 47% 46% -21.6%
all 914 -7.0% -15.8% 50% 48% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 48% -15.0%
10% -23.9% 45% -23.1%
15% -31.2% 40% -30.5%
20% -38.0% 35% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$242
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses456 / 458
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)914 / 916
History coverage141d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 914 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 124 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$13 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$7 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$7 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 3h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (- BUY 13¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $5.01 · 2347 history records