Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:03:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7347…9675 crypto 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$184 (-12%) realized −$84 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%26W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days−$57
14 days−$184
30 days−$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$107
sports 25% −$58
other 22% +$22
world 14% −$126
politics 2% −$5
tech 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +9.1% -1.3% 47% 42% -16.2%
≤30d 63 -10.6% -19.1% 41% 37% -23.1%
≤90d 63 -10.6% -19.1% 41% 37% -23.1%
all 63 -10.6% -19.1% 41% 37% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 37% -23.1%
10% -26.9% 30% -30.4%
15% -33.9% 29% -37.1%
20% -40.4% 25% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$84
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses26 / 37
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions8
Markets (closed)63 / 73
History coverage10d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $24 $6 −$18 (-75%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 49¢ 53¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 57¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $25 +$2 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $8 +$4 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$30 +146%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 19 $16 +$17 +104%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$12 +40%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $31 −$3 -10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $138 −$136 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +110%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 +$4 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$14 +137%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $21 −$6 -30%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $23 −$1 -5%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $21 −$11 -54%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $34 −$5 -14%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$19 +365%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $13 −$13 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $63 +$85 +134%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $17 +$6 +32%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $53 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$6 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $36 +$35 +99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$49 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$12 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 53¢ $27 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $27 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Sp BUY 7¢ $12 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $12 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 59¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 60¢ $30 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 100¢ $33 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 31¢ $41 36h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $28 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $28 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $32 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $25 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $24 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $24 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $35 4d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $14 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $21 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 28¢ $10 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $21 4d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $29 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.54 · official $43.23 · 164 history records