Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:18:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
73 0x7340…4e09 world 157 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,186 (-1%) realized −$1,191 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate68%106W / 50L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$556per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days−$3,021
14 days−$3,415
30 days−$4,723
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$462
other 9% +$230
crypto 8% −$2,258
politics 2% +$264
tech 1% −$92
sports 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +4.6% -5.4% 64% 33% -43.7%
≤30d 90 -0.9% -10.3% 61% 34% -21.0%
≤90d 147 -1.7% -11.1% 66% 29% -11.5%
all 156 -0.3% -9.8% 68% 29% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 29% -11.0%
10% -18.4% 18% -19.5%
15% -26.3% 14% -27.3%
20% -33.5% 10% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$166 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$1,191
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses106 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)156 / 157
History coverage106d
Avg bet$556
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 84¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$15 +150%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 +$18 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$7 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$30 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $105 +$17 +16%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $33 +$27 +80%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $73 −$24 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $12 −$9 -78%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $538 −$366 -68%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $150 +$6 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Jun 17 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $11 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$7 +68%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $39 +$1 +1%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,140 −$597 -52%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3,306 −$2,239 -68%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $2,745 +$104 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +272%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $3,568 +$141 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $29 +$12 +42%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 11 $36 −$18 -50%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 11 $52 −$21 -40%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $99 −$99 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $422 −$323 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $30 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $15 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $35 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $12 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 13h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $41 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $15 14h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes $3 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $3 17h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $10 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $60 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $60 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 52¢ $33 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $34 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.57 · official $24.86 (match) · 709 history records