trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 50% | 0% | -10.1% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 50% | 0% | -10.1% |
| ≤90d | 25 | +1.3% | -8.3% | 68% | 28% | -7.2% |
| all | 79 | +6.7% | -3.4% | 42% | 25% | -9.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -3.4% | 25% | -9.9% |
| 10% | -12.7% | 25% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -21.1% | 18% | -26.4% |
| 20% | -28.9% | 13% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $21 | $21 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $12 | $12 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $12 | $12 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $11 | $11 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 82¢ | 92¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+12%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 27 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 27 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 27 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 27 | $26 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 25 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? | May 25 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | May 25 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | May 25 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | May 25 | $4 | $0 | +5% |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | May 25 | $3 | $0 | +3% |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | Apr 26 | $1 | +$1 | +83% |
| Thunder vs. Suns | Apr 25 | $1 | $0 | +27% |
| Cavaliers vs. Raptors | Apr 25 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | Apr 25 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Pistons vs. Magic | Apr 25 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves | Apr 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 25 | $5 | +$3 | +62% |
| Knicks vs. Nets | Apr 25 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Celtics vs. Grizzlies | Apr 25 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Raptors vs. Nuggets | Apr 25 | $1 | $0 | +39% |
| Warriors vs. Pistons | Apr 25 | $1 | $0 | +49% |
| Lakers vs. Magic | Apr 25 | $1 | +$1 | +72% |
| Hawks vs. Rockets | Apr 25 | $1 | +$1 | +72% |
| Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Apr 25 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | Apr 25 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| 76ers vs. Pacers | Mar 20 | $1 | $0 | +25% |
| Thunder vs. Raptors | Mar 20 | $1 | +$1 | +96% |
| Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Mar 20 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Raptors vs. Wizards | Feb 24 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? | Feb 24 | $3 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | Feb 24 | $4 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Jan 20 | $5 | +$7 | +148% |
| Mavericks vs. Warriors | Jan 20 | $1 | $0 | +35% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | Jan 20 | $1 | $0 | +45% |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | Jan 20 | $1 | +$1 | +67% |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | Jan 20 | $2 | +$1 | +70% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Dec 24 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Dec 24 | $5 | −$3 | -68% |
| Raptors vs. Nets | Dec 24 | $1 | $0 | +25% |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | Dec 24 | $1 | +$1 | +108% |
| Nuggets vs. Kings | Dec 24 | $2 | +$1 | +30% |
| Grizzlies vs. Knicks | Dec 24 | $3 | +$1 | +25% |
| Warriors vs. Thunder | Dec 24 | $3 | +$1 | +37% |
| Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Nov 11 | $200 | $0 | -0% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | Nov 11 | $5 | +$4 | +75% |
| Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Oct 27 | $150 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Oct 27 | $160 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether | Oct 27 | $260 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Oct 27 | $180 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? | Oct 27 | $60 | −$9 | -14% |