Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:16:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7336…9720 other 190 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$60 (-0%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%28W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$19
other 26% −$27
sports 21% −$21
crypto 10% −$5
world 4% −$2
culture 3% −$2
economics 2% $0
finance 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 105 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 189 -0.2% -9.7% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses28 / 161
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)189 / 190
History coverage161d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $15 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $365 −$3 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $141 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $191 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $150 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 20 $107 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 19 $40 $0 +1%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $520 −$2 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun May 18 $56 −$3 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 17 $37 $0 -1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 17 $97 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $321 −$2 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $167 −$1 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 16 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $332 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $388 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 14 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 14 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $157 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $338 $0 -0%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $382 −$2 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 12 $117 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $401 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $177 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 10 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 09 $206 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $107 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 08 $62 $0 -1%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 08 $46 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $244 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 07 $103 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 07 $60 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 07 $95 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $123 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 05 $56 $0 -1%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $108 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $50 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $63 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? SELL No 97¢ $15 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? BUY No 98¢ $15 7d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $49 14d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $49 15d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $36 28d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $36 29d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $57 29d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $57 29d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $52 29d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $52 29d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $51 29d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $52 29d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $42 29d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $42 30d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $54 30d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $54 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? SELL No 97¢ $41 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 96¢ $41 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 30d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 30d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 31d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $44 31d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $44 31d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 31d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $58 31d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $20 31d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $10 31d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $58 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.84 · official $62.84 (match) · 867 history records