Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:39:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7336…ddd5 other 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$193 (-12%) realized −$195 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%18W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$571now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$40
14 days+$25
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$66
sports 12% −$62
politics 4% −$63
crypto 3% −$22
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-47.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -7.9% -16.7% 47% 47% -2.6%
≤30d 17 -18.7% -26.5% 41% 41% -7.0%
≤90d 20 -24.9% -32.0% 40% 40% -16.2%
all 59 -42.2% -47.7% 31% 29% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.7% 29% -29.5%
10% -52.7% 24% -36.2%
15% -57.3% 24% -42.4%
20% -61.4% 20% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$571
Realized−$195
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses18 / 41
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)59 / 70
History coverage235d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 94¢ $202 $197 −$4 (-2%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 86¢ $104 $121 +$18 (+17%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 80¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 74¢ $101 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $19 $24 +$4 (+23%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 56¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 56¢ 42¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-24%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 64¢ 48¢ $10 $8 −$3 (-26%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Will Désiré Doué win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-62%)
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? Yes 45¢ 45¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $102 +$18 +17%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 +$7 +70%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $13 −$13 -99%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $6 +$4 +82%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $122 +$47 +38%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 +$19 +172%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$13 +120%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 19 $190 −$10 -6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 +$5 +86%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $14 −$13 -96%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand May 02 $11 +$2 +21%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 May 01 $50 −$50 -99%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 08 $4 −$4 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Ben Shelton vs Learner Tien Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Andrey Rublev vs Ugo Humbert Mar 08 $2 +$2 +70%
Mexican Open: Casper Ruud vs Yibing Wu Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
International T20 Series: India vs New Zealand (Game 1) Jan 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 21 $5 +$4 +72%
International ODI: India vs New Zealand (Game 3) Jan 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-17? Jan 18 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 Jan 05 $5 +$3 +71%
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 29-January 4? Dec 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Dec 29 $6 −$1 -18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Dec 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Sentient FDV above $600M one day after launch? Dec 17 $16 −$7 -45%
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale? Dec 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale? Dec 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? Dec 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Australian hero donation campaign reach $1.7 million by Dec 1 Dec 15 $3 −$3 -100%
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? Dec 11 $21 +$1 +4%
Spurs vs. Lakers Dec 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? Dec 10 $8 −$4 -52%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Dec 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-10? Dec 10 $10 −$10 -100%
HumidiFi FDV above $100M one day after launch? Dec 10 $10 +$1 +12%
HumidiFi FDV above $300M one day after launch? Dec 10 $10 −$4 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 56¢ $11 17m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $101 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $202 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 16h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 23h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $5 23h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 23h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 58¢ $10 23h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $6 2d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $104 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 77¢ $23 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 34¢ $10 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 23¢ $6 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $15 3d
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3d
Will Désiré Doué win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $5 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 4d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $102 4d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 4d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $60 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 83¢ $179 4d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $190 4d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 5d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $570.99 · official $572.87 (match) · 123 history records