Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:31:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7334…cc1c sports 1028 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d only
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$973 (-15%) realized −$973 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate28%302W / 766L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day49.5pace
Fees−$132est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$159
14 days−$218
30 days−$1,095
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$801
other 11% −$79
crypto 5% −$78
world 5% −$37
finance 5% −$100
politics 1% −$30
culture 1% −$7
tech 0% −$6
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 +13.5% +2.7% 24% 17% -24.1%
≤30d 821 +38.6% +25.4% 29% 24% -23.7%
≤90d 1068 +42.8% +29.2% 28% 23% -21.3%
all 1068 +42.8% +29.2% 28% 23% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.2% 23% -21.3%
10% ← realistic here +16.9% 20% -28.9%
15% +5.6% 18% -35.7%
20% -4.8% 16% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +56% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$973
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses302 / 766
Est. fees paid−$132
Open positions29
Markets (closed)1068 / 1028
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day49.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 1068 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 94¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+40%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Down 96¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Team Nemesis 61¢ 62¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 46¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Under 30¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Iraq 40¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 39¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Cabo Verde 27¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 42¢ 36¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 71¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+27%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 33¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 91¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Samsung Lions Samsung Lions 44¢ 47¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+128%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 16¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 30¢ 30¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 379 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 15 $0 +$1 +726%
NBA Playoffs: Rockets vs. Lakers Total Games O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $0 −$1 -466%
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets Jun 15 $0 −$1 -972%
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $0 +$3 +997%
Abidjan: Massimo Giunta vs Mert Alkaya Jun 15 $0 −$1 -490%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 15 $0 −$1 -1578%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Sabres vs. Bruins Jun 15 $0 −$1 -385%
Madrid Open: Dalma Galfi vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 15 $0 +$1 +1712%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs BIG (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Jun 15 $0 $0 -308%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 15 $0 $0 +136%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers Jun 15 $0 $0 -350%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Jun 15 $1 $0 -89%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Jun 15 $0 $0 +5%
Madrid Open: Iga Swiatek vs Ann Li Jun 15 $0 $0 +134%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 15 $0 $0 -152%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 15 $0 $0 +97%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs 7REX (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular S Jun 15 $0 $0 -341%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 15 $0 $0 +148%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 15 $0 $0 -713%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Jun 15 $0 $0 -122%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 15 $0 $0 -204%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - Jun 15 $0 −$1 -1680%
BMW Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 15 $0 $0 -233%
Kraken vs. Avalanche Jun 15 $0 −$1 -250%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 23? Jun 15 $0 −$1 -2156%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins Jun 15 $0 $0 -47%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 15 $0 −$1 -618%
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 15 $0 $0 -311%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 15 $0 −$1 -1200%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $0 +$2 +1646%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? Jun 15 $0 −$1 -672%
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 15 $0 +$3 +1358%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 +158%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 15 $0 $0 -142%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-26? Jun 15 $0 $0 -17%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 15 $0 $0 -471%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $0 $0 +17%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Heroic (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Jun 15 $0 $0 -188%
Oeiras 3: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 15 $0 −$4 -1406%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 15 $0 −$1 -552%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Wild vs. Stars Jun 15 $0 −$2 -1100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 15 $0 $0 +214%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Nikola Bartunkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 15 $0 −$1 -812%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 15 $0 $0 -188%
Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 15 $0 −$1 -249%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 15 $0 +$1 +1367%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 15 $0 −$1 -423%
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $0 $0 -154%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $3 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 40¢ $3 1h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Flavio Cobolli 45¢ $3 2h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Nuno Borges 28¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 96¢ $5 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 29¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 55¢ $4 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 5h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 43¢ $3 6h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Saigon Warriors 42¢ $3 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 6h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 30¢ $2 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY Team Nemesis 61¢ $4 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 7h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 40¢ $3 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 36¢ $2 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.74 · official $51.24 (match) · 3500 history records